San Francisco Real Estate Market Update: November 2017

The Swiss bank UBS published its Global Real Estate Bubble Index recently, stating that San Francisco is the most overvalued real estate market in the US. Their analysis focused on the rise of home prices in San Francisco compared to the rise in median incomes. Their report stated that home prices have risen 65% since 2012 while the average income has risen only 10%.

While they are, essentially, correct about the rise in the housing prices (taking both single family and condo prices into account), they are off on the income rise. Per the US Department of Commerce, median household income rose 42% from 2012-2016. While there is no income data out yet for 2017, we can safely assume that it has risen in 2017, given the incredibly tight job market. Therefor, income appreciation has lagged at least 40% behind housing cost appreciation, resulting in a significant drop in housing affordability.

Single Family Homes:
October’s median sales price jumped sharply to an all-time high of $1,588,000, up 13.4% above October, 2016.

The number of new listings on the market year-to-date is down 5% from 2016 while the number of sales is up 2.9%. This has caused inventory to drop 29% compared to last October and is at its lowest level, 1.9 months, since February.

The incredibly tight supply coupled with strong demand kept the level of overbids high as well, up to 115.6%, higher than last October’s 108%.

83% of single family homes sold above the list price, and the median sales price was 113% of the list price.

Condo/Loft/TIC’s:
Median sold prices are dead even with last October’s at $1,140,000. They are up 5.8% on a 3-month rolling average compared to last year.

Following a very big month in the number of condo/TIC sales, 303, inventory is down 16% from September and 26% compared to last October. Like single family homes, the number of Condo/Loft/TIC listings are down year-to-date compared to 2016, by 6.6%, while sales are up 2.7%.

The flurry of sales brought sold prices up above list prices, to 104%, the highest level since May, 2016. This compares to this September’s 101%. And, 67% sold above list price, up from 55% in September.

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SOLD: 4307-4309 20th Street


Sold for $2,800,000
Buyer Represented

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SOLD: 342 Point Lobos


Sold for $1,400,000
Buyer Represented

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SOLD: 943 Church Street #B

Sold for $3,051,000

Buyer Represented
Property Type: Condo

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SOLD: 2627 Lawton Street

Sold for $1,210,000

Buyer Represented
Property Type: Single Family

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SOLD: 827 Breeze Way

Sold for $467,000

Seller Represented
Property Type: Single Family

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SOLD: 8355 Mirabel Avenue

Sold for $415,000

Buyer Represented
Property Type: Single Family

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San Francisco Real Estate Market Update – September 2017

Single Family Homes:
August’s median sales price continued its predictable seasonal backing off from its Spring peak, dropping 6.4% to $1,380,000 from May’s $1,475,000. However, in the same time frame last year prices dipped 7.4%. Prices are still up 10.4% above August, 2016.

Since August, 2012, the median sold price in San Francisco is up 81%.

Inventory continues to be at its lowest level, 1.6 months, since last December. This is the ongoing result of fewer homes coming on the market while sales stay fairly constant. The number of new listings on the market year-to-date is down 7% from 2016 while the number of sales is up 3.3%.

The incredibly tight supply coupled with strong demand kept the level of overbids high as well, down a bit from July but still at 114%, and 79% of single family homes sold above the list price, up from 75.9% last August.

Condo/Loft/TIC’s:
Median sold prices are up 10.8%, to $1,175,000, compared to August 2016. And, while not as great a rise as with single family homes, the median sold price is up 62.5% compared to August 2012’s $723,000.

In August, 63.4% sold above list price and the median bid was 3.2% above list price.

The number of Condo/Loft/TIC listings are also down year-to-date compared to 2016, by 10.7%. And, like single family homes, sales are up, by 2.6%. Current inventory stands at a 2 months supply.

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SOLD: 90 Dellbrook Avenue

Sold for $1,681,000

Buyer Represented
Property Type: Single Family

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SOLD: 3867-3869 17th Street

Sold for $1,680,500

Buyer Represented
Property Type: Multi family

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