Market Statistics

Updated Charts: Potrero & Bernal

Potrero Hill Houses: another challenging place for statistics because of the low number of sales and the variety of houses that do sell. Median and average prices jump all over the place, but there’s a relatively clear, consistent story for dollar per square foot.

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Bernal Heights Houses

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Updated: North End/ Lake Street & Jordan Park/ Russian Hill

A few more updated charts: District 7/North Side, Lake Street/Jordan Park, Russian Hill, Lone Mountain:

Prestige Northern Neighborhoods: House Sales, $1.5m – $10m

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District 7 Condos

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Lake Street/ Jordan Park & Laurel Heights: these neighborhoods are tough for statistics because there aren’t that many sales and many of them don’t give square footage, but still the trend line is clear.

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Russian Hill Condos

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Lone Mountain SFD – there is the issue here of a very limited number of sales to generate reliable statistics.

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Updated: North End/ Lake Street & Jordan Park/ Russian Hill

A few more updated charts: District 7/North Side, Lake Street/Jordan Park, Russian Hill, Lone Mountain:

Prestige Northern Neighborhoods: House Sales, $1.5m – $10m

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District 7 Condos

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Lake Street/ Jordan Park & Laurel Heights: these neighborhoods are tough for statistics because there aren’t that many sales and many of them don’t give square footage, but still the trend line is clear.

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Russian Hill Condos

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Lone Mountain SFD – there is the issue here of a very limited number of sales to generate reliable statistics.

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2nd Quarter North Bay Market Report

2nd Quarter North Bay Real Estate Market Report

Home Prices and Luxury Home Sales Way Up

For Marin, Napa & Sonoma Counties

Another very strong quarter in the North Bay real estate market: Year over year, the median house sales price in the second quarter was up 25% in Marin and Sonoma, and 34% in Napa. Though there are a number of dynamics behind the rise in median price, including the large decrease in distressed property sales and large increase in luxury home sales, home values have clearly been rapidly appreciating over the past year, and especially in 2013, as buyer demand soared and inventory stayed low.

We have updated our home value maps to reflect spring’s recent sales. The North Bay map is just below the 2 San Francisco maps:
San Francisco Mapped Neighborhood Values

1North Bay Luxury Home Sales
In this chart, luxury houses are defined, rather arbitrarily, as those selling for $1,500,000 and above: Sales of such homes surged in the second quarter, just as they have around the Bay Area. North Bay high-end sales are concentrated in Marin, but Napa and Sonoma also have significant luxury home segments.

Distressed Home Sales: this link shows the opposite trend for distressed property sales in the North Bay: though rapidly dwindling, these sales still make up significant percentages of the Napa and Sonoma markets:
North Bay Distressed Home Sales

2North Bay Market Snapshot
79% of second quarter sales sold quickly without price reductions at an overall average of 1% over list price. 21% of sales sold after one or more price reductions at an average discount to original list price of 10%. And some listings didn’t sell at all, but ended up withdrawn from the market, typically due to being perceived as overpriced. Note the huge disparity in average days on market for those homes selling with and without price reductions: Pricing correctly makes a huge difference in market response.

3Trends in Average Dollar per Square Foot Values
As with median sales prices, the trajectory in dollar per square foot values has been significantly upward over the past year. Note also that Sonoma has far more house sales than Marin and Napa combined. As a point of comparison, last quarter in San Francisco, there were 720 house sales, the median price was $996,000 and the average dollar per square foot value was $687. The city’s recovery started somewhat earlier than most other counties in the Bay Area, and its overall median sales price has now exceeded previous peak values in 2007-2008. Marin is approaching the same threshold, with the other 2 counties’ median prices, much harder hit by distressed home sales, still distinctly below peak values.

4Interest Rates: The Sky Is Not Falling
Not to diminish legitimate concerns regarding rising mortgage rates and their effects on housing costs, but this graph puts recent increases in context. At any time before 2011, the current interest rates, even after their recent big percentage jump, would be reason for conga lines of celebration in the streets. Rates had to rise from their historic and artificial lows – how far and fast this may continue is unknown to us, but we don’t presently expect big shocks to the real estate market in the near future.

5Months Supply of Inventory (MSI)
Inventory began to creep up in the second quarter, but supply as compared to demand remains very low by any historical measure. This, of course, is the major dynamic behind rising home values.

And this link goes to a chart that tracks the actual unit inventory of homes listed and available for sale by month: as can be seen, units for sale remain far, far below levels of previous years:
Homes for Sale

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Updated Housing Market Charts

Noe & Eureka Valley Houses:

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Cole Valley-Ashbury Heights-Clarendon & Corona Heights Houses:

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Glen Park Houses:

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Condos, Selected District 5 Neighborhoods:

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District 5 Residential 2-4 Unit Buildings:

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District 2 Houses

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Inner Sunset House Median Sales Price. FYI: Inner Sunset general dollar per square foot values actually track overall District 2 dollar per square foot values. For example in the 1st half, District 2 was $579/sq.ft. and Inner Sunset was $580/sq.ft. – of course, it all varies by the specific property.

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TICs: Price and Sales Volume Trends

As Reported to San Francisco MLS

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All data from sources deemed reliable but subject to error and revision. © Paragon Real Estate Group
Statistics are generalities that may be affected by other factors besides changes in value and only a specific comparative market analysis can estimate value for any particular property.

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Case-Shiller: Different Bubbles, Different Accelerating Recoveries

Note: Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for “San Francisco” are for a 5-county area, of which the city’s housing market is a very small part. Since they are published 2 months after the month of the Index, are 3-month rolling averages, and the time between offer acceptance and closed sale typically runs 4-8 weeks, Case-Shiller is generally 3-6 months behind the market itself, i.e. when offers are being negotiated in the present. Case-Shiller publishes 4 main indices for SF Metro Area houses: an aggregate index for all price ranges, and then one index for each third of unit sales – low price, middle price and high price tiers.

When the market fell from its peak in 2006-early 2008 (different areas and different market segments peaked at different times), the scale of the decline varied widely, mostly by price point. With the recovery that began in 2012 and accelerated in 2013, the magnitude of the price recovery, as compared to previous peak values, has also varied by price point and area.

The lowest price range (terribly affected by foreclosures and distressed sales) fell most dramatically – approximate 60% decline – and though recovering dramatically on a percentage basis, is still way below its peak. It simply has much more loss to make up.

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The upper price range (the top third of unit sales) in the 5-county metro area fell much less during the bubble pop and with the recovery is getting close again to peak values:

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This chart below illustrates the short-term changes in the C-S high tier index: the recovery in 2012 accelerating in 2013:

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And then looking just atthe city of San Francisco itself, which has, generally speaking, among the highest home prices in the 5-county metro area: many of its neighborhoods are now blowing past previous peak values. Note that this chart has more recent price appreciation data than available in the Case-Shiller Indices and that the rate of appreciation accelerated in the March-May timeframe. This is also for both houses and condos combined, when the C-S charts used above are for house sales only.

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For the Competitive Among Us

I am trying to teach my son not to care too much about how he measures up to others.  A little healthy competition is fine.  (I can run faster!)  But wondering who makes more money, who has a better house, who has a better car… not so much.  It’s a process.

But we all wonder, don’t we?  Here’s a chart you can have some fun with.  Some of it will make you feel pretty good (greenest!) and some pretty bad (most homeless)… Have fun and try not to brag too much to your out of town friends and relatives.

2013 sf stats read more →