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10-Year Treasury Hit a Historic Low Again

up-logo_0I have recently joined the board of a fantastic nonprofit organization, United Policyholders. The mission of United Policyholders is to “empower the insured.”

In practical terms this means that they help provide consumers with advice as to how to make claims against their insurance companies, especially in the case of large natural disasters, like Hurricane Katrina, the recent Northern California fires or the flooding that just happened in New Jersey. But they also try to make sure that consumers care enough coverage, document their belongings and condition of their home well enough to make the claim in case it is after happens. They have a wonderful app, that I encourage you to download and use today to establish a record of your possessions and condition of your home. To try it out, search for UPHelp Home Inventory App in the App Store or click here.

More about United Policyholders and to become one of the empowered, click here. read more →

10-Year Treasury Hit a Historic Low Again

numbers-money-calculating-calculationLast Thursday, the 10-year treasury hit a historic low again. One of my favorite lenders says “2013 low,” which is the lowest they have ever been or just about. If you have been thinking about refinancing or even if you have a pretty good rate, I encourage you to call your favorite lender immediately to see if you can lock in one of these historic low rates. We keep hearing that interest rates are going to rise, but here they are, as low as they’ve ever been, again. So if you missed it last time, now’s your chance.

Of course, if you need a referral to a lender, I am here to provide that to you. Just ask! read more →

San Francisco Median Condo Price Appreciation 2011 to 2015, by Neighborhood

Median sales price is a very general statistic, often concealing an enormous variety of values in the underlying individual sales. It can be and often is affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value, such as changes in the inventory available to purchase, and major changes in the distressed property, luxury home, or new condo construction segments. Sometimes median prices fluctuate without any great significance: substantially different groups of homes (larger, smaller, older, newer, etc.) simply sold in different periods. Assessing appreciation by changes in dollar per square foot values, instead of by median sales prices, can sometimes deliver significantly different appreciation rates.

Below the charts is a table with a more comprehensive list of San Francisco neighborhoods, and at the bottom of the page is a neighborhood map.

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The neighborhoods on the table below are grouped by San Francisco Realtor District, some of which contain neighborhoods of relatively similar values and some with highly variable home values.

Generally speaking, the higher the number of sales, the more reliable the statistics: We’ve usually calculated appreciation rates for neighborhoods with at least 24 sales in 2015, but these should still be considered very approximate.

An asterisk signifies a very low a number of annual sales and/or our suspicion that the appreciation calculation would not reflect market reality due to the variety of issues pertaining in the area. New, high-price condo projects can make sudden, dramatic impacts on neighborhood median sales prices in the year they go on market. In 2011, median sales prices in some areas were badly distorted by distressed property sales (bank and short sales) that didn’t represent fair market values. If either of these situations applies, the 4-year appreciation rate will jump higher in that neighborhood.

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We have also performed this analysis for San Francisco house values: San Francisco House Price Appreciation, 2011 to 2015

Our survey of the 2015 San Francisco real estate market: San Francisco Homes Market in 2015 read more →

San Francisco Median House Price Appreciation 2011 to 2015, by Neighborhood

Median sales price is a very general statistic, often concealing an enormous variety of values in the underlying individual sales. It can be and often is affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value, such as changes in the inventory available to purchase, and major changes in the distressed property, luxury home, or new home construction segments. Sometimes median prices fluctuate without any great significance: substantially different groups of homes (larger, smaller, older, newer, etc.) simply sold in different periods. Assessing appreciation by changes in dollar per square foot values, instead of by median sales prices, can sometimes deliver significantly different appreciation rates.

Below the charts is a table with a more comprehensive list of San Francisco neighborhoods, and at the bottom of the page is a neighborhood map.

1

2

The neighborhoods on the table below are grouped by San Francisco Realtor District, some of which contain neighborhoods of relatively similar values and some with highly variable home values.

Generally speaking, the higher the number of sales, the more reliable the statistics: We’ve usually calculated appreciation rates for neighborhoods with at least 24 sales in 2015, but these should still be considered very approximate.

An asterisk signifies a very low a number of annual sales and/or our suspicion that the appreciation calculation would not reflect market reality due to the variety of issues pertaining in the area. In 2011, median sales prices in some areas, especially in the southern border neighborhoods of the city, were badly distorted by distressed property sales (bank and short sales) that didn’t represent fair market values. If this situation applies, the 4-year appreciation rate will jump higher in that neighborhood.

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We have also performed this analysis for San Francisco condo values: San Francisco Condo Price Appreciation, 2011 to 2015

Our survey of the 2015 San Francisco real estate market: San Francisco Homes Market in 2015

read more →

New Case-Shiller Index for San Francisco Metro Area

The new S&P Case-Shiller Index for November 2015 for the 5-county, San Francisco Metro Statistical Area was published yesterday. According to C-S, home prices continued to tick up a small bit through the autumn market.

Most of these charts track the “high-price tier” of homes (the upper third of home sales by price), which apply best to San Francisco, southern Marin, San Mateo and central Contra Costa counties. However, note that appreciation rates do vary by market area.

At this point, the next real indication of where the homes market is heading will come after the beginning of the 2016 spring selling season (which can begin as early as mid-late February) and sales begin to close in March and April.

The past 12 months:

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Since the recovery began in 2012. One can see in both the above and below charts the extreme seasonality of home price appreciation over the past year and over the past 4 years. Almost all the significant appreciation has been occurring in the spring selling season, when the supply and demand dynamic has been most out of whack, and the competition situation between buyers for new listings has been the most ferocious. Whether this spring will experience this frenzy once again, or whether an inflection point has been reached (for any of a number of potential reasons) causing a more extended plateau in appreciation or even a negative adjustment of some magnitude will soon become evident.

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Over the last few real estate cycles:

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And this “aggregate” chart tracks all home price segments for the SF Metro Area. Note that the 3 price tiers delineated by Case-Shiller had bubbles, crashes and recoveries of very different magnitudes, and this aggregate chart doesn’t apply well to either the low or high price tiers, but approximates the mid-price tier reasonably well:

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Paragon’s full report on the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index for the Bay Area is here.

read more →

Sold: Easy City Living at Oceanview Terrace

3-8100Oceanview109 lr6

8100 Oceanview Terrace,
San Francisco California

Sold for at $469,000
Seller Represented

  • 1 Bedroom/1 Bath Condo
  • New Stainless Appliances
  • Fresh Paint Throughout
  • Open Plan Living
  • In-Unit Washer/Dryer
  • One Car Parking (space C13)
  • HOA Dues: $355.27
  • Year Built: 2002
  • 492 sq. Feet Per Tax Record

(more…) read more →