I have recently joined the board of a fantastic nonprofit organization, United Policyholders. The mission of United Policyholders is to “empower the insured.”
In practical terms this means that they help provide consumers with advice as to how to make claims against their insurance companies, especially in the case of large natural disasters, like Hurricane Katrina, the recent Northern California fires or the flooding that just happened in New Jersey. But they also try to make sure that consumers care enough coverage, document their belongings and condition of their home well enough to make the claim in case it is after happens. They have a wonderful app, that I encourage you to download and use today to establish a record of your possessions and condition of your home. To try it out, search for UPHelp Home Inventory App in the App Store or click here.
Last Thursday, the 10-year treasury hit a historic low again. One of my favorite lenders says “2013 low,” which is the lowest they have ever been or just about. If you have been thinking about refinancing or even if you have a pretty good rate, I encourage you to call your favorite lender immediately to see if you can lock in one of these historic low rates. We keep hearing that interest rates are going to rise, but here they are, as low as they’ve ever been, again. So if you missed it last time, now’s your chance.
Of course, if you need a referral to a lender, I am here to provide that to you. Just ask! read more →
The new S&P Case-Shiller Index for November 2015 for the 5-county, San Francisco Metro Statistical Area was published yesterday. According to C-S, home prices continued to tick up a small bit through the autumn market.
Most of these charts track the “high-price tier” of homes (the upper third of home sales by price), which apply best to San Francisco, southern Marin, San Mateo and central Contra Costa counties. However, note that appreciation rates do vary by market area.
At this point, the next real indication of where the homes market is heading will come after the beginning of the 2016 spring selling season (which can begin as early as mid-late February) and sales begin to close in March and April.
The past 12 months:
Since the recovery began in 2012. One can see in both the above and below charts the extreme seasonality of home price appreciation over the past year and over the past 4 years. Almost all the significant appreciation has been occurring in the spring selling season, when the supply and demand dynamic has been most out of whack, and the competition situation between buyers for new listings has been the most ferocious. Whether this spring will experience this frenzy once again, or whether an inflection point has been reached (for any of a number of potential reasons) causing a more extended plateau in appreciation or even a negative adjustment of some magnitude will soon become evident.
Over the last few real estate cycles:
And this “aggregate” chart tracks all home price segments for the SF Metro Area. Note that the 3 price tiers delineated by Case-Shiller had bubbles, crashes and recoveries of very different magnitudes, and this aggregate chart doesn’t apply well to either the low or high price tiers, but approximates the mid-price tier reasonably well:
Paragon’s full report on the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index for the Bay Area is here.