Jennifer Rosdail | San Francisco Real Estate » Jennifer Rosdail – San Francisco Residential Real Estate Sales. Specializing in NOPA (North Panhandle), Inner Sunset, Parnassas Heights, The Haight and the Richmond District.

Jennifer’s Market Perspective

admin — Fri, 17 Feb 2012 21:31:24 +0000

Inventory is as tight as it has ever been in “recorded” history. (That is, San Francisco MLS history, which is about 20 years.) We have buyers chomping at the bit with low great new jobs and relocation packages for the first time in years and not enough homes available to satisfy them. Contributing factors are that urban living hasn’t been this in style since the 1920s and interest rates are even lower than last time I wrote to you. Open houses are busy and well-priced homes are selling quickly in all market segments. Sales absorption is outpacing oncoming listings even in this early spring season. I am hearing this from colleagues in Wine Country as well as Sacramento. I don’t know what it means for the future, but I do think that 2012 may be the year that turns things around in the real estate markets less affected by distressed sales. Whatever happens, it seems like it’s going to be an exciting year full of multiple offer situations and where decisive and timely action will carry the day for buyers as well as sellers. And of course I have charts to back this up – to see them click here.

December Roundup of SF Market Statistics

admin — Thu, 23 Dec 2010 20:45:34 +0000

Despite mostly negative reports from other parts of the country, the San Francisco home market has performed relatively well since the autumn market began after Labor Day. Indeed, the number of listings accepting offers in November was well above last year’s and the median home price is at its highest since the April tax-credit crush. Typically the market slows down dramatically from mid-November to mid-January, but so far it is slowing far less than usual.

Generally speaking, 30-40% of San Francisco new home listings accept offers within 30 days of going on market (i.e. quickly). They are perceived as good values, often attract multiple offers, and the sales prices for such homes are still, on average, slightly above the list price. (Houses perform better than condos, and condos perform better than TICs and multi-unit buildings.) Another 20% of new listings sell after 1 or more price reductions: on average, they’re on the market for over 100 days before offer acceptance, and sell at a sales price to original list price percentage that is 10-14% lower than that of homes selling quickly. And then 30-40% of listings expire without selling, typically due to being perceived as overpriced. The San Francisco home market is active, but buyers aren’t buying everything (as it seemed they did in the bubble years) – they’re buying only those properties they consider fair or, better yet, compelling values.

Statistics are generalities, often subject to surprising fluctuations due to a variety of reasons. Median prices may be affected by other factors than changes in value. Averages may be distorted by a small number of sales substantially higher or lower than the norm, especially where the sample size is small. New-development condo sales not reported to MLS are not included in this analysis. All information contained herein is derived from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and omissions, and is not warranted.

Homes Accepting Offers
The number of SF homes – houses, condos, TICs & 2-4 unit buildings – accepting offers is remaining generally stable. Though the market typically starts to slow markedly in November, this has not occurred this year, and the number of listings accepting offers in November was only slightly reduced from October, and was 17% above November of 2009, and 90% above November 2008 (the market crash era).

Median Sales Price
The Median Sales Price is that price at which half the properties sold for more and half for less. The median price for all home types in San Francisco was $775,000 in November which is its highest since April. However, median price is a very general statistic, which can be affected by a number of factors (such as an increase in high-end home sales), and it’s not unusual for it to fluctuate up and down by month. It’s certainly too early to conclude SF home values are on a sustained upward trajectory.

Median Price: Distress vs. Non-Distress Sales
A distress sale is a bank-owned property sale (usually pursuant to foreclosure) or a short sale (the lender must reduce the loan amount to allow the sale to close). The cross-hatched and solid bars delineate the median prices of distress property sales and non-distress homes respectively: in SF, distress properties have a much lower median sales price than non-distress sales — in November, $435,000 vs. $802,000. This is due to 3 reasons: firstly, the majority of distress sales in the city occur in the least affluent neighborhoods and housing costs less there anyway; secondly, distress properties often look distressed, and thirdly, buyers expect major discounts on a such sales. (Otherwise, they wouldn’t bother with the considerable hassle of dealing with the bank sales departments.) Of the 43 distress home sales in November, only 2 were above $750,000. September and October each has 11 distress home sales over $750,000.

Homes for Sale
The number of listings actively for sale declined significantly in November, but is still running 17% above November of last year. The cross-hatched section of the bars delineates the number of distress properties actively for sale: in November, they totaled 483 or about 18% of all active listings. Again, though these sales occur throughout the city, most of them are clustered in specific neighborhoods. San Francisco has been much less impacted by foreclosures and short sales than most other California counties.

Luxury Homes Accepting Offers
In this analysis, luxury homes are defined as houses and condos listed at $1,500,000 and above. October was the strongest month for luxury home sales in the past 25 months, and November was not far behind. Such sales in November of 2010 were 61% above those in November of 2009, and 350% above November of 2008 (the nadir of the market, right after Lehman Bros.).

New Listings
As is typical for this time of year, the number of new listings crashes in November (and December), and then revives again in January. The cross hatched portions of the bar delineate new distress-home listings, which at 129 in November, are at the second highest number of the past 25 months. (The average number of new distress-home listings over the past year was 116 per month.)

Average Days on Market (DOM)
This chart measures the average number of days between going on market and accepting an offer for all home types: at 58 days in November, it was the lowest, by a few days, of the past 25 months. Breaking it down further, houses had an average DOM of 52 days, condos were at 67 days, and luxury homes ($1.5m and above) were at 57 days. Those homes that do sell generally sell relatively quickly.

Months’ Supply of Inventory (MSI)
MSI is defined as the number of months it would take to sell the current inventory of homes for sale, at the current rate of sale: generally speaking, the lower the MSI, the greater the demand. MSI for all SF homes was 3.8 months in November, which is moderately low. However MSI varies widely by property type: for houses, the MSI was lower at 3 months; for condos, it was 3.9 months; for TICs, 6.3 months; and for 2-4 unit buildings, 5.2 months of inventory. The MSI for luxury homes was 3.8 months.

Expired/Withdrawn Listings
On one hand, the SF home market has been stable both in regards to buyer demand and to property values – and November was an excellent month in sales activity – but on the other hand, quite a few listings expire without selling, typically because they are perceived as overpriced. November had the highest number of expired/withdrawn listings since last December – December generally being the highest month as properties are withdrawn for the holidays, often to be re-listed in January (not unusually at reduced prices).

Return on Investment
Comparing stocks with homes is like comparing apples with hardboiled eggs, but it’s still interesting. This chart is based upon all-cash purchase (no leverage). Stock performance does not include dividends and real estate performance does not include value of housing provided or potential rental income. Real estate appreciation is calculated on changes in median sales price for 2 & 3 bedroom houses and 2 bedroom condominiums in a sampling of SF districts. (Appreciation based upon changes in average dollar per square foot was 59% for houses and 64% for condos.) The chart does not adjust for transactional costs or for the $250,000/ $500,000 capital gains exclusion for primary residence sales. All numbers should be considered approximations.

2-4 Unit Buildings Accepting Offers
November was reasonably active for the sale of 2-4 unit residential buildings – one of the top 5 months of the last 25. Changes in financing conditions, tenant eviction law and the TIC market have affected this market in the past 2 years.

TICs (Tenancies-in-Common)
This chart shows the number of TICs for sale vs. the number sold in any given month. Due primarily to major changes in TIC financing conditions, the number of TIC sales in the city has fallen dramatically as compared to the period before September 2008. In November, there were 269 TIC units for sale, 39 new listings, 30 accepted offers, 16 sold (closed escrow) and 50 listings expired.

Paragon Performance
This chart shows the average percentage of sales price to original list price when acting as listing agent for luxury homes of $2,000,000 and above. Of the major city brokerages, Paragon consistently achieves the highest Sales Price to Original List Price percentage and lowest Days on Market for luxury homes (and indeed for all home sales as well). Homes that are priced correctly, prepared to show in their best possible light, and marketed comprehensively unsurprisingly achieve the highest sales prices in the shortest amount of time. Since September 1st, Paragon’s percentage market share for luxury homes is up over 47% year over year, we are currently the #2 luxury home brokerage in the city by unit sales for homes $1,500,000 and above.

What You Get for How Much Where in San Francisco

admin — Mon, 22 Nov 2010 21:57:58 +0000

2010 Home Sales at Median Price by Neighborhood

Buyer demand has been strong since the autumn sales season began in mid-September. Overall median home prices continue to remain stable – as they have for the past 12–16 months – jogging up and down within a narrow band of value. Inventory is about 12% higher than 1 year ago, but Months’ Supply of Inventory remains at about 4 months of inventory, which is considered a relatively balanced situation between buyer’s and seller’s markets. However, for every 10 listings that have sold in the past 4 months, another 8 have expired without selling: buyers are choosing those properties they consider fairly priced (which typically sell quite quickly) and ignoring the rest. Average Days on Market for those houses, condos and TICs which did sell was 54 days in October, which is the lowest figure in over 2 years.

Below are specific San Francisco home sales which closed at or near the median prices for houses and condos sold in the neighborhood specified – however, they are not necessarily representative of typical values.

Specific SF HOUSE Sales at Median Price — by Neighborhood

Pacific Heights, $3,500,000, 4BR, 4.5 BA Victorian on California Street, 4509 sqft, panoramic views, decks, 6 fireplaces, 2 car parking, $776/sqft

Sea Cliff, $3,000,000, 1951 4BR, 3.5BA on El Camino del Mar; 3491 sqft; water, Golden Gate and Mt Tam views; Zen garden, 8000 sqft lot, 2 car parking, $859/sqft

Clarendon Heights, $2,800,000, modern 3-level 6BR, 5.5BA on Villa, 4580 sqft, panoramic views, all new systems, 4 car parking, $617/sqft

Russian Hill, $2,250,000, 1906 3BR, 2.5BA on Hyde, 2090 sqft, deck, garden, library, 2 car parking, $1077/sqft

Telegraph Hill, $2,000,000, 1912 3BR, 2.5BA Edwardian on Vallejo cul de sac; spectacular views of bay, bridge and downtown; roof deck, separate apartment, leased parking

Marina, $1,875,000, 1930 3BR, 2.5BA on Cervantes, 2180 sqft, seismic upgrades, bonus office, 2 pkg, $860/sqft

St Francis Wood, $1,825,000, 1956 4BR, 3.5BA on San Pablo, 3740 sqft, ocean views, bank-owned sale, 2 pkg, $488/sqft

Lake Street, $1,759,000 (median is $1.85m), 1913 3BR, 2.75BA, North of Lake Craftsman on 18th, 3465 sqft, family room, needs restoration work, 1 pkg, $508/sqft

Eureka Valley, $1,475,000, 1905 4BR, 2.5BA Victorian on Noe, 2389 sqft, family room, sunroom, 1 pkg, $617/sqft

Cole Valley, $1,450,000, 1907 3BR, 3BA on Cole, 2040 sqft, new systems and foundation, garden, deck, 2 pkg, $711/sqft

Forest Hill, $1,400,000, 1926 3BR, 3BA detached Spanish-Med on Magellan, bonus family room, deck, yard, 1 pkg

Lower Pacific Heights, $1,232,000, 1883 4BR, 2BA Victorian on Pine, needs complete renovation, 1760 sqft, 2 pkg, $700/sqft

North of Panhandle (NOPA), $1,230,000, 1910 2BR, 1.5BA Craftsman Edwardian on Hayes, 1950 sqft, seismic upgrades, decks, 2 pkg, $631/sqft

Noe Valley, $1,200,000, 1902 renovated 2BR, 2BA Victorian on Jersey, den, deck, yard, 1 pkg

West Portal, $1,095,000, 1926 4BR, 2.5BA detached Spanish-Med on Lenox, 2036 sqft, large yard, 1 pkg, $538/sqft

Diamond Heights, $1,035,000, 1975 3BR, 2.5BA contemporary on Berkeley, 2892 sqft, roof deck, Glen Canyon view, 2 pkg, $358/sqft

Potrero Hill, $950,000, 2BR, 1BA Marina-Style house on Wisconsin, north slope, bay and bay bridge views, beautiful garden, bonus office, 1 pkg

Glen Park, $929,000, 1909 2BR, 1.5BA corner-lot Victorian on Congo, 1471 sqft, garden, den, bonus rooms, 1 pkg, $632/sqft

Central Richmond, $925,000, 1919 3BR, 2BA Edwardian on 18th, 1827 sqft, 2 parking, $506/sqft

Inner Sunset, $833,000, 1948 3BR, 1.5BA contemporary on 18th Ave, FDR, patio, yard, 2 pkg, $499/sqft

Inner Mission, $800,000, 2BR, 2BA Victorian on Harrison, den, deck, bonus rooms, garden, 2 pkg

Central Sunset, $760,000, 1951 3BR, 1BA traditional on 35th Ave, 1400 sqft, expansion potential, 2 pkg, $543/sqft

Bernal Heights, $750,000, 1952 2BR, 1BA on Folsom, 1125 sqft, garden, 2 pkg, $667/sqft

Miraloma Park, $750,000, 1931 detached 2BR, 1BA on Rockdale, 1150 sqft, east views, FDR, deck, garden, 1 pkg, $652/sqft

Midtown Terrace, $750,000, 1957 3BR, 2BA on Dellbrook, 1244 sqft, bonus room with kitchenette, trust sale, 2 pkg, $603/sqft

Outer Parkside, $645,000, 1945 2BR, 1BA corner-lot house, 1089 sqft, ocean view, bonus room, expansion potential, 2 pkg, $592/sqft

Ingleside Heights, $520,000, 1955 3BR, 2BA tunnel-entrance home on Bright, 1394 sqft, 2 pkg, $373/sqft

Excelsior, $500,000, 1947 2BR, 1.5BA contemporary on Vienna, 1278 sqft, bonus BR & BA, short sale, 1 pkg, $391/sqft

Silver Terrace, $450,000, 1942 2BR, 1BA contractor special on Bridgeview, 1375 sqft, 4 pkg, $327/sqft

Specific SF CONDO Sales at Median Price — by Neighborhood

Marina, $1,100,000, 1935 2BR, 2BA Spanish-Med lower flat on Beach, FDR, sunroom, patio, shared garden, 1 pkg, $625/month dues

Russian Hill, $990,000, 1911 top-floor 2BR, 1.5BA Edwardian on Green, 1450 sqft, GG Bridge views, leased parking offsite, $219/month dues, $683/sqft

Pacific Heights, $857,000, 2BR, 2BA condo on Sacramento, 1130 sqft, doorman bldg, GG Bridge views, 1 pkg, $784/month dues, $758/sqft

Cole Valley, $827,000, 1924 2BR, 1.5BA top-floor flat on Belvedere, 1519 sqft, Marin Headlands view, FDR, 1 pkg, $250/month dues, $544/sqft

Duboce Triangle, $850,000, 2BR, 1BA top-floor Victorian on 15th, 1 car parking, $367/month dues

Eureka Valley/Castro, $790,000, 1911 2BR, 1BA top-floor flat on Hartford, 1054 sqft, downtown and Twin Peaks views, deck, $257/month dues, $750/sqft

NOPA, $775,000, 1900 2BR, 1BA lower flat on Grove, 1399 sqft, yard, deck, 2 fireplaces, 1 pkg, $225/month dues, $554/sqft

Noe Valley, $770,000, 1900 2BR, 1BA top-floor Victorian flat on 23rd , 1042 sqft, sunroom, 1 pkg, $241/month dues, $739/sqft

Nob Hill, $770,000, 1992 2BR, 2BA on Sacramento, 1289 sqft, 2 patios, city lights views, 1 pkg, $597/sqft

North Beach, $730,000, 2BR, 2BA lower flat on Vandewater, 910 sqft, walk-out garden, 1 pkg, $250/month dues, $820/sqft

Lower Pacific Heights, $693,000, 1916 3BR, 2BA top-floor Victorian on Baker, 1400 sqft, deck, 1 pkg, $300/month dues, $495/sqft

Hayes Valley, $685,000, 1992 2BR, 1.5BA townhome on lane off Fulton, 1146 sqft, 1 pkg, $411/month dues, $598/sqft

Mission Dolores, $684,000, 1907 3BR, 1BA top-floor Edwardian on Clinton Park, 1147 sqft, deck, office, leased pkg offsite, $220/month dues, $596/sqft

South Beach, $665,000, 2005 2BR, 2BA brick contemporary on King, 987 sqft, ballpark views, 1 pkg, $963/month for dues and parking, $674/sqft

Inner Mission, $649,000, 3BR, 2BA 2-level contemporary on Alabama, 1445 sqft, 1 pkg, $535/month dues, $449/sqft

SOMA, $579,000, 2002 2BR, 2BA, high-rise condo on South Van Ness, 1075 sqft, city and bridge views, 1 pkg, $539/month for dues and parking, $539/sqft

Potrero Hill, $575,000, 1999 1BR, 1.5BA top-floor condo on 17th , 1215 sqft, panoramic views, decks, family room, 1 pkg, $423/month dues, $473/sqft

North Waterfront, $537,500, 1983 1BR, 1BA high-rise condo on Lombard, 923 sqft, doorman bldg, balcony, 1 pkg, $809/month dues, $582/sqft

Western Addition, $535,000, 1963 3BR, 2BA condo on Cleary, high-rise, 1100 sqft, 1 pkg, $685/month dues, $486/sqft

San Francisco MLS sales closing between January 1 and September 30, 2010. Median price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less, and it may fluctuate for a variety of reasons. Dollar per square foot is based on “livable space”, which does not include decks, garages, unfinished basements and attics, or rooms built without permit (“bonus rooms”). Sadly, square footage figures are often unreliable or unreported. All data herein is from sources deemed reliable but subject to error and omission, and not warranted.

The San Francisco Home Market – August 2010 Update

admin — Wed, 25 Aug 2010 17:11:56 +0000

Despite the constant news of dramatic changes in the real estate market – Values soar! Values crashing! Market up or down ___% from last month! Double dip recession! – the home market in San Francisco has exhibited a remarkable stability over the past year. As shown in the charts below, median prices for both houses and condos are virtually unchanged from one year ago; buyer demand remains steady; months’ supply of inventory remains steady; foreclosure sales are stable; low interest rates continue. Statistics jump around within a relatively narrow percentage band: there has certainly been no definitive trend up or down. It is neither a crazy buyers’ market nor a crazy sellers’ market: it’s a relatively healthy, balanced market, where the basic rules of real estate generally apply: well-priced, well-prepared, well-marketed homes typically sell quickly and homes without those characteristics don’t.

Statistics are broad-brush generalities subject to fluctuations due to a variety of reasons. Median prices in particular may be affected by other market factors besides changes in value. All information contained herein is derived from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and omissions, and is not warranted. Sales not reported to MLS are not included in these analyses.

click for larger image	Homes Accepting Offers The number of SF homes – houses, condos and TICs – accepting offers is remaining stable, though running a little higher than this time last year. (April was an abnormally busy month due to the expiring Federal tax credit.)

click for larger image	SF House Median Sales Price The Median Sales Price is that price at which half the properties sold for more and half for less. Though it has gone up and down a bit over the past year, the median sales price for SF houses in July 2010 was virtually unchanged from that in July 2009: no definite trend up or down has manifested itself. The average median for the past 13 months is $756,000.

click for larger image	SF Condo Median Sales Price The median sales price for SF condos has remained remarkably stable for the past 12 months, with the average median sales price for the past 13 months being $675,000. Certainly no definitive trend in value up or down is apparent from the median price.

click for larger image	Distressed Home Median Sales Price Distressed properties are those that are being sold by banks pursuant to foreclosure, and short sales, which require banks to reduce the outstanding loan amount for the transaction to close. The median price for such sales has generally fluctuated between $450,000 and $525,000, which, looking at the earlier charts, one can see is a substantial discount from overall median house and condo prices in San Francisco. However, the majority of such sales are located in the less affluent neighborhoods of the city.

click for larger image	Luxury Homes: For Sale vs. Under Contract The red bars show the number of active luxury home listings in any given month (in this case, defined as houses and condos with list prices of $1,500,000 and above), and the blue line shows the number of listings which accepted offers. In July, the percentage of higher-end listings which accepted offers was about 15%

click for larger image	Inventory of Homes for Sale The dark red bars show the total number of homes that were for sale during the given month, with the lighter bars showing how many were actively for sale on the last day of the month – the difference being those listings that accepted offers, expired or were withdrawn. As we get deeper into summer, both numbers have declined slightly.

click for larger image	Average Days on Market (DOM) This chart measures the average number of days between going on market and accepting an offer. The average in July was 55 days, the lowest in 13 months but basically unchanged since March. In July, houses had the lowest average DOM with 48 days; condos were at 59 days; and TICs were at 75 days: this reflects the respective heat of each market segment. The average days-on-market for “For Sale” homes is 79 days, since it tracks those listings that have not received an acceptable offer.

click for larger image	Months’ Supply of Inventory (MSI) MSI is defined as the number of months it would take to sell the current inventory of homes for sale, at the current rate of sale: the lower the MSI, the greater the demand. MSI for all SF homes has stayed generally stable at 3-4 months, which is considered moderately low. However MSI varies widely by property type: for houses, the MSI is a low 2.9 months; for condos, 4.4 months; for TICs, 5.4 months; and for 2-4 unit buildings, a relatively high 7.4 months of inventory.

click for larger image	Distressed Homes as % of Sales The hash-marked sections delineate the number of distressed property sales (bank-owned and known short sales) against total home sales. The percentage of such sales is noted at the top of each bar: generally jogging up and down between 14% and 17%. Since 2010 began, within any given month, there are usually 400 – 450 distressed properties for sale; 110 – 130 distressed-home new listings; 80 – 100 accept offers; 55 – 75 close escrow; and 30 – 40 expire without selling.

click for larger image	Percentage of Listings Under Contract This chart shows the percentage of home listings which accepted offers within the given month. Except for the surge in April and the doldrums of the holidays, that percentage has typically remained between 16% and 20%. In July, houses had the highest percentage under contract (22.5%), followed by condos (15.4%), TICs (13.5%), and 2-4 unit buildings (10.7%): the higher the percentage under contract, the hotter the market segment.

click for larger image	Sales Price to Original List Price The darker blue bars show the percentage of original list price , typically about 100%, achieved by SF home sales that occurred without a price reduction, i.e. they sold quickly. The lighter bars show the percentage of original list price achieved by those listings that went through one or more price reductions before selling. The difference is typically 10 – 13% of the original list price amount. (January’s numbers are almost certainly caused by faulty reporting.) A well-priced, well-prepared and comprehensively marketed home (of general appeal) will usually sell quickly for the highest price.

click for larger image	New Listings The number of new listings in the city are up a little over July of last year, but down from the peaks of the spring selling season. Usually, the market will see a surge of new listings after Labor Day.

click for larger image	Homes Sold vs. Listings Expired & Withdrawn The green bars denote sold homes and the purple bars denote expired and withdrawn listings. In July, when many of the spring listings that did not sell expired, the number of expired/ withdrawn listings was almost equal to the number that sold. Listings expire or are withdrawn typically due to being perceived as overpriced.

Market Update: July 2010, Mid-Year Review

admin — Wed, 14 Jul 2010 15:55:02 +0000

Median prices and average dollar per square foot figures are generalities, which may be affected by other market factors besides changes in value. All information contained herein is derived from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and omissions, and is not warranted. Sales not reported to MLS are not included in these analyses.

Median Sales Prices The Median Sales Price is that price at which half the properties sold for more and half for less. Many agents believe that SF homes values started to climb in the last quarter, and, as shown in the chart, houses and condos did hit their highest median prices since 2008. However, they’re only about 1% above late 2009, and still within 3-4% of prices 15 months ago. The new quarter will show whether an established upward trend in prices has begun, instead of the recent zigzaging up and down. Remember that sales prices are 30-60 days behind the market: closed sales in June generally reflect offers accepted in April and May.	click for larger image

Homes Accepting Offers Despite all the news reports about declining home sales, in San Francisco at least, though we have seen a drop from the unusual spike in April (expiring Federal tax credits), activity in June was still the 4th strongest month in the last 2 years, 7% above June 2009, and almost equal to June 2008 (before the market downturn in September 2008). Last year, sales did not significantly slow in the summer.	click for larger image

Median HOUSE Price by Neighborhood Besides the values pertinent to different neighborhoods, house sizes often vary enormously: average house size in Pacific Heights and St. Francis Wood is much larger than in Noe Valley, which is larger than that of Miraloma Park. Pacific & Presidio Heights are almost always at the top of the chart and Bayview (terribly affected by foreclosure sales) at the bottom.	click for larger image

Median CONDO Price by Neighborhood Russian Hill has been consistently at the top of median condo prices. Of course, condos in different neighborhoods may have widely divergent sizes, quality of finish and age of construction. One reason for the gap between the Marina and Pacific Heights is that the former has a much larger average condo size.	click for larger image

Average HOUSE Dollar per Square Foot Dollar per Square Foot is based upon the home’s interior living space and does not include garages, unfinished attics and basements, rooms built without permit, decks or yards. These figures are usually derived from appraisals or tax records, but can be unreliable or unreported altogether. Note that in Pacific Heights/Marina (Realtor District 7), less than half the houses sold specified square footage, which makes the figure below a wild approximation.	click for larger image

District 5: Average House $/Sq.Ft. District 5 is one of San Francisco’s largest and most homogenous districts and includes the following neighborhoods: Noe & Eureka Valleys; Ashbury, Clarendon & Corona Heights; Haight Ashbury; Duboce Triangle; Glen Park; Mission Dolores. The average dollar per square foot for houses in District 5 has been creeping up over the past 4 quarters, but it is still 14% below the height of the market in the first half of 2008. Note that average dollar per square foot may be affected by other issues than simply changes in value, such as the size of the homes being purchased.	click for larger image

Average CONDO Dollar per Square Foot Only half the condo sales in Russian Hill specified square footage, so its figure, in particular, is a wild approximation. Still, Russian Hill is almost always at the top of the scale. The Nob Hill average, in particular can fluctuate enormously depending on where within Nob Hill the sales are taking place, but all averages are gross generalities that may fluctuate for a number of reasons (besides changes in value).	click for larger image

SF Luxury Home Sales by Neighborhood We generally define the luxury home market in the city as house sales of $2,000,000 plus, and condo/co-op sales of $1,500,000 plus. The northern prestige neighborhoods — such as Sea Cliff, Pacific & Presidio Heights, and Russian & Nob Hills — dominate luxury home sales, but some also occur in District 5 (Noe, Castro and Haight Ashbury) and in St. Francis Wood, as well as in the new condo developments in South Beach and SOMA.	click for larger image

Homes $1,000,000+ Accepting Offers Sales of homes of $1,000,000 plus strengthened this past spring. Such higher-end sales typically make up 15% – 20% of the overall home market in San Francisco by unit sales.	click for larger image

Home Sales by Realtor District The district with the greatest number of house sales is District 10, which has been hit hardest by foreclosure sales. The district dominating condo sales is District 9 with all the recent condo developments (and this chart does not include new development sales not reported to MLS, of which there are many in District 9). District 5 in the center of the city has the second highest number of overall sales after District 9.	click for larger image

Homes For Sale The inventory of homes for sale is creeping upward, which is good news for buyers.	click for larger image

New Home Listings Coming on Market The number of new listings in the city are up 19% over June of last year, but down from the peaks of the spring selling season.	click for larger image

SF Bank & Short Sales The percentage of distressed home sales has stayed mostly in the 12% – 16% range since late 2008. Bank sales are typically pursuant to foreclosure. Short sales are those sales in which the lender’s agreement to reduce the outstanding mortgage balance is necessary for the sale complete – that is, the house is worth less than the loan and other financial liens on the property.	click for larger image

Listings Sold to Listings Expired/Withdrawn The green bars denote sold homes and the purple bars denote expired and withdrawn listings. Even in a relatively hot spring home-selling season, a large percentage of listings do not sell, generally due to being perceived as overpriced.	click for larger image

Months-Supply-of-Inventory (MSI) MSI is defined as the number of months it would take to sell the current inventory of homes for sale, at the current rate of sale: the lower the MSI, the greater the demand. MSI has stayed relatively stable at 3-4 months of inventory since February, which is considered relatively low.	click for larger image

Average Days-on-Market (DOM) Days-on-Market measures the number of days between a property going on market and the acceptance of an offer. The average number of days on market for those houses and condos accepting offers continues to decline and is now at its lowest level in over two years.	click for larger image

Newsletter | Update Report | SF Open Homes | Property Search

Paragon Real Estate Group
415.738.7000 | 415.565.0500 | www.paragon-re.com

What's Going to Happen Next?

admin — Wed, 17 Mar 2010 22:45:34 +0000

The San Francisco Home Market: Bounce Back or Double Dip?

Yesterday, an extended piece on The Today Show rated San Francisco as the #1 housing market ripe for recovery. To see the video, go to http://today.msnbc.msn.com/, scroll down the page to the “Tech & Money” section, then click on the video “5 Housing Markets Ripe for Recovery.”

The following criteria for evaluating areas that are stabilizing and poised for recovery:

-affordability

-low rate of foreclosures

-appreciation (per National Assocation of Realtors)

-strong job market and low unemployment

San Francisco was the # 1 pick, in front of Pittsburgh, Phoenix, Memphis, and Charleston WV.

I hope the Today Show’s expert Barbara Corcoran is right!

Unfortunately, she may not be. We live in a constant storm of analysis and opinion as to what is happening and will happen in real estate. Due to national statistics in December (and other economic indicators), some have predicted a nasty “double dip” in the home market subsequent to the recovery which began last spring. But the market goes into hibernation in December: there are far fewer transactions, mostly by first-time buyers purchasing at lower price points, while families and upper-end buyers generally withdraw for the holidays. When the data is reduced and skewed, it’s less reliable. January isn’t much better because it takes a while for the market to wake up.

Data is from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors, and is not warranted. Sales not reported to MLS, such as many new-development condo sales, are not reflected in these statistics. Median price is that price at which half the sales are above and half are below.

Therefore, the market data for February, as seen in the charts below, is of particular interest. While it’s unwise to make too much of one month’s data (a failing of many pundits), it is surprising how sharply February’s statistics indicate a strengthening market. That is not to say a double-dip isn’t possible — the state, national and world economies are still fragile — just that we are not yet seeing indications of one here in San Francisco. Those who have spent the last year waiting eagerly for further price declines have so far waited in vain. (For the record: according to the Case-Shiller index, home values in the 5-county SF Metro Area have increased 4 – 5% in 2009, but the city accounts for only a small percentage of those sales.) It will be interesting to see if the trends seen below continue, as spring gets under way — and what implications that might hold regarding price movements.

click for larger image	Home Listings Accepting Offers Considering February is a short month (with 2 national holidays), market demand was comparable to the highest levels we’ve seen in the past 18 months. February’s number was 50% higher than January, 80% higher than one year ago (during the market’s dark days), and 12% above February 2008.

click for larger image	Median List Price of Homes Accepting Offers The most recent market data available is of listings accepting offers. (Sales prices are 30-60 days behind the market, as they reflect when the offer was accepted.) And the median list price of homes accepting offers is generally within a few percentage points of the final sales price. Assuming the steep December/ January drop was a seasonal anomaly, this chart shows little indication of either significantly increasing or decreasing prices. Indeed, the definitive trend is how stable the overall SF median price for homes under contract has been since spring 2009: $700,000 plus or minus about 3%.

click for larger image	Market Activity by Property Type House and condo sales dominate the SF market, with TICs and 2-4 unit buildings far behind. The low number of closed sales in February reflects the reduced offer activity of the holiday season, and February’s accepted offers will close mostly in March and April. The average time it took for sold houses to accept an offer (59 days) was lower than that for condos (75 days), TICs (109 days) and 2-4 unit buildings (110 days), which reflects the heat of each market segment.

click for larger image	New Listings Coming on Market New inventory has been increasing since early January, but as can be seen in the other charts, it is not keeping up with buyer demand. We may see a greater surge of new listings with the beginning of spring – certainly the hope of many buyers. This is a week by week chart of the past 6 months.

click for larger image	Homes for Sale (w/o Accepted Offers) Despite the increase in new listings, the number of active homes for sale — house, condo, TIC — over the last 3 months has been lower than at any time in the past 2 years. This reflects the anecdotal word from the field: strong buyer demand; lots of buyers touring open houses; very limited supply of appealing, well-priced homes to buy; often leading to multiple offers on those that do appear on market.

click for larger image	Percentage of Listings with Accepted Offers At over 22%, February had the highest percentage of San Francisco home listings with accepted offers of any month over the past 2 years, indicating a market heating up. When looking at homes between $500,000 and $700,000 — the price range with most sales in SF — the percentage increases to over 24%, the highest percentage for that price range in the past 2 years.

click for larger image	Average Days-on-Market for Homes Accepting Offers The lower the days-on-market, the faster listings are accepting offers. February saw a big plunge in average days on market (to 47 days) for homes accepting offers. In fact, the change was so dramatic, it may be anomalous — or it may simply reflect pent-up demand, as buyers returning from the holidays jump upon an insufficient supply of inventory. It is the lowest average days-on-market number in the past 2 years.

click for larger image	Months-Supply-of-Inventory (MSI) MSI is defined as that number of months required to sell the existing inventory of available homes at the current rate of sale: the lower the MSI, the stronger the demand as compared to supply. At an MSI of 3.1 months, February had the lowest MSI figure for SF homes of the past 2 years. The MSI for SF homes between $500,000 and $700,000 is an even lower 2.7 months. Usually MSI figures this low would be considered a clear “Sellers’ market,” but with difficult financing conditions and uncertainties regarding the economy, the balance of power between qualified buyer and motivated seller is currently more complicated.

click for larger image	Inventory Absorption: SF Home Market The longer gray lines delineate “residual inventory”, i.e. that number of listings actively for sale on the last day of the month which were listed prior to the first day of the month: simply put, listings which have not accepted offers within 1 month of going on market. January and February saw the lowest amount of residual inventory in the last 2 years. Also the ratio of properties which have accepted offers to residual inventory is at the highest level in 2 years. Two more statistics indicating a strengthening market.

click for larger image	Sold Listings vs. Expired Listings The green bars indicate sold listings and the purple bars the expired/ withdrawn listings in any given month. (Again, the low number of sales in January and February reflect the low number of accepted offers during the holidays.) Even with the relatively strong demand in SF since last spring, for every 3 homes that sold, another 2 listings expired without selling. The current market is unlike our (very hot, perhaps irrational) market of 2 – 3 years ago, when it seemed that virtually everything sold quickly. Most Buyers now ignore listings they consider overpriced, and homes not priced within 5% – 8% of perceived fair market value usually don’t even receive offers.

click for larger image	Luxury Homes Accepting Offers This 2-year chart delineates the number of San Francisco homes priced $1,500,000 and above which accepted offers in any given month. Luxury home sales rebounded in February 2010 from the doldrums of the holiday season, back up to the highest levels seen in the past year — but still substantially below the activity seen before the market meltdown in September 2008.

click for larger image	Luxury Homes: % of Listings with Accepted Offers At 19%, February saw the highest percentage of high-end listings ($1.5m and above) with accepted offers since July 2008, an obvious indication of increasing demand amid relatively low supply. A year ago, the percentage was a very low 7% (following the crash in the luxury home market after September 2008), and 2 years ago, during the hot luxury market, the percentage reached a high 28%.

click for larger image	Mortgage Rates As March began, the average rate for 30-year fixed-rate loans once again fell below 5%, which is very low. Many analysts believe rates will increase after the Fed ends its bond buying program at the end of March, and though opinions vary, the consensus forecasts an approximate 1% increase by the end of 2010. 6% is still a low rate historically, but the increase would add significantly to the carrying cost of home ownership.

Recent Sales (Over, Under or At ask)

admin — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 23:43:18 +0000

As I mention in my article on volume, more activity puts pressure on prices. As you can see in the table below, the number of transactions where the property is selling for more than the asking price, is sharply up from earlier this year, where even for single family homes, under 20% of transactions were yeilding a sales price over asking. We’re at a whopping 54% of single family home transactions closed in the last two weeks coming in over asking price. To see more about earlier in the year, click see “Have we found the Floor?” from July 31, 2009

Last 2 weeks’ home sales in SF:
	Over Ask	Under Ask	At Ask	Total
SFD	39	20	13	72
% of sales	54%	28%	18%
Condos/TICs	17	41	13	71
% of sales	24%	58%	18%
2-4 Unit Buildings	2	9	1	12
% of sales	17%	75%	8%
Total	58	70	27	155
% of sales	37%	45%	17%

At Last! Sales Volume Trending Up

admin — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 23:23:44 +0000

In every category, even luxury, the number of homes sold is trending upwards. The charts below are not reflective of the price they are trading at, but generally higher market activity starts to put upward pressure on prices. The charts below show a two year period ending August 30, 2009. Overall, my reading of these charts is that if you were waiting for the market to bottom out, it has already done so. Also, it’s still a very good time to buy between 500k and $2MM as those curves have only just started to gently edge up.

Home Sales $500,000 & Under (It must be noted here that one of the reasons the growth in sales is so high is because there were fewer homes as a proportion of the market under $500,000 back in 2007.)

Home Sales $501,000 – $999,000

Home Sales $1,000,000 – $1,999,999

Home Sales $2,000,000 and Above

Have We Found the Floor?

admin — Fri, 31 Jul 2009 23:07:30 +0000

Yesterday, the Case-Shiller Index — considered the most objective index of US home prices — reported, as pertaining to April to May prices: “10-city and 20-city composites reported positive returns for the first time since the summer of 2006…the first time we have seen broad increases in home prices in 34 months. This could be an indication that home price declines are finally stabilizing.”

For the SF Metro Area (i.e. greater Bay Area, NOT just SF), C-S reported gains of .6% March to April, and 1.4% April to May. Year over year, C-S reported an overall metro area decline of 26.1%. Read the full article here.

From my own experience, I can happily say that things are picking up. Home of the Week 1617 Fulton went into escrow after just 5 days or so on the market with a pre-emptive offer. My listing at 640 Judah got three offers after just a short time on the market, and buyers who I am working with now are regularly competing in a field of 3 or more offers. To be clear, these deals are all well under the $1MM mark, and activity is definitely being driven by the availability of financing available at very low rates. Homes that are not eligible for these low rates – most TICs and homes requiring a loan over $729k are not moving nearly as briskly (if at all -oh so gorgeous Home of the Week 116 Sugarloaf has been on the market over a year and has been reduced from $7.5MM to a mere $4.5MM).

The below charts show that there has been a substantial increase in sales volume, and about a 20% decrease in homes selling under asking price. Volume for the two weeks ended July 15 was 172% of what it was for the period ended March 18 of this year. It is too soon to tell if the decrease in homes selling under asking price (and the commensurate increase in those selling over) means that prices are climbing. However, my recent market experiences tell me that there has been a shift toward underpricing homes to attract attention (and multiple offers) in the “affordable” sectors of the market.

Well, it’s changes like these that keep things exciting and I am really happy to be participating in these busy times due to the support I get from all of you. Thanks, as always for your referrals and for letting me be your go-to person for your real estate needs.

(All data is from San Francisco MLS)

Market Update – Signs of Life (at last)!

admin — Sat, 13 Jun 2009 18:23:56 +0000

In recent weeks, the number of listings accepting offers has increased substantially, while the number of price reductions and expired and withdrawn listings – though still high by historical standards – has decreased significantly. Months-supply-of-inventory (MSI), an indicator of seller supply and buyer demand, has also declined. (The higher the MSI, the greater the buyer advantage.) Whether this will prove to be the beginning of a durable resurgence for SF real estate or simply a springtime bounce, it is too soon to tell.

The area where most house sales are now occurring is Realtor District 10 (Bayview-Portola-Excelsior). Then comes District 2 (Sunset-Parkside), District 5 (Noe-Castro-Haight) and Bernal Heights. District 10, with the greatest number of foreclosure sales, has been hardest hit by price declines, and has roughly as many sales as Districts 2 and 5 combined – so it has had a massive impact on overall median price in SF. (Which is one reason why the overall city median home price is virtually worthless as an indicator of changes in market values.)

Most condo sales are occurring in South Beach-SOMA, then District 5 (Noe-Castro-Haight), and then District 7 (Pacific Heights-Cow Hollow-Marina). These numbers don’t include new development sales unreported to MLS – which would greatly increase the South Beach-SOMA sales numbers. The new developments are doing everything they can to move inventory right now.

Foreclosure Sales Update

Since mid-October 2008, 17% of house sales and 6% of condo sales in San Francisco have been REO (bank-owned) homes. The median sales price of an REO house during this period has been relatively stable at about $500,000; the median sales price for an REO condo has been $432,000. 78% of REO house sales have occurred in the less affluent south/southeast part of the city, stretching from Bayview to Oceanview. 85% of REO condo sales have been in the neighborhoods stretching south from SOMA along the east side of the city down to Bayview and across to Oceanview. The greater part of the city – northern, central and western neighborhoods – continues to be relatively unaffected by foreclosure sales.