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Cine al Fresco

I am a huge fan of free public activies in general – just seeing all my fellow San Franciscans out enjoying our community gives me a thrill. And nothing is more fun than free movies in the park – a picnic dinner under the stars and snuggling those you love under a blanket while you watch a favorite movie. . . it’s like a modern urban campfire.

At least two organizations offer movies in San Francisco every summer: The San Francisco Neighborhood Theater Foundation (http://www.sfneighborhoodtheater.org/) and Dolores Park Move Night (http://www.DoloresParkMovie.org). Both are non-profits and could use your support. Last year there was a third organization, Alamo Square Movie Night that seems to be no longer functioning. Stefan and I attended several and think it’s perhaps because it was a tad too chilly for anyone but die-hards like us. )

You can generally count on my family planning to attend, so if you ever want to join us, just let me know. Here’s what I know about the schedules:

SF Neighborhood Theatuer Foundation Movies:

Saturday, 6/20, Dolores Park, GOLDFINGER (1964)
Saturday, 7/11, Union Square, MANHATTAN (1979)
Saturday, 8/1, Dolores Park, PRETTY IN PINK (1986)
Saturday, 8/22, Union Square, ON THE WATERFRONT (1954)
Saturday, 9/19, Dolores Park, THE DARK KNIGHT (2008)
Saturday, 10/3, Wash. Sq. Park, SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE (2008)

Dolores Park Movie Night:

Thursday, July 9, at 8:30 P.M. – Annie Hall (1977)
Thursday, August 13, at 8:30 P.M. – TBD. They are open to suggestions. See the Web site.
Thursday, September 10, at 8:00 P.M. – TBD. They are open to suggestions. See the Web site.
Thursday, October 8, 7:00 P.M. – TBD. They are open to suggestions. See the Web site.

Growing Up in a Garden

If we’re connected on Facebook, you’ve already seen this picture of Elvis at our new community garden plot. Just two weeks later, we have arugula, radishes, basil, pumpkins, peas and various other things sprouting. We also, unfortunately, had a gopher siting. It’s been really fun so far! Although we have a yard, the placement of the fences does not make it ideal for cultivation of vegetables and we’ve also enjoyed getting to know some of our fellow gardeners. The cost? $25 a year. The land is owned by SF Park & Rec and the $25 goes into a community fund for things like garden hoses and other improvements.

These gardens are tucked away in out of the way unused spaces and offer an opportunity to experiment, grow your own food and make new friends. If you’d like to participate in a community garden, here’s a complete list of what’s out there in San Francisco. Waiting lists range from none to a few months or even several years. It’s worth checking out, as there’s no better way to eat local than to grow your own. To see the complete garden list, click here. If you belong to a garden, post on the blog and let me know what you think of yours!

Tax Credit Chart

HOMEBUYER TAX CREDIT CHART

Market Update – Signs of Life (at last)!

In recent weeks, the number of listings accepting offers has increased substantially, while the number of price reductions and expired and withdrawn listings – though still high by historical standards – has decreased significantly. Months-supply-of-inventory (MSI), an indicator of seller supply and buyer demand, has also declined. (The higher the MSI, the greater the buyer advantage.) Whether this will prove to be the beginning of a durable resurgence for SF real estate or simply a springtime bounce, it is too soon to tell.

The area where most house sales are now occurring is Realtor District 10 (Bayview-Portola-Excelsior). Then comes District 2 (Sunset-Parkside), District 5 (Noe-Castro-Haight) and Bernal Heights. District 10, with the greatest number of foreclosure sales, has been hardest hit by price declines, and has roughly as many sales as Districts 2 and 5 combined – so it has had a massive impact on overall median price in SF. (Which is one reason why the overall city median home price is virtually worthless as an indicator of changes in market values.)

Most condo sales are occurring in South Beach-SOMA, then District 5 (Noe-Castro-Haight), and then District 7 (Pacific Heights-Cow Hollow-Marina). These numbers don’t include new development sales unreported to MLS – which would greatly increase the South Beach-SOMA sales numbers. The new developments are doing everything they can to move inventory right now.

Foreclosure Sales Update

Since mid-October 2008, 17% of house sales and 6% of condo sales in San Francisco have been REO (bank-owned) homes. The median sales price of an REO house during this period has been relatively stable at about $500,000; the median sales price for an REO condo has been $432,000. 78% of REO house sales have occurred in the less affluent south/southeast part of the city, stretching from Bayview to Oceanview. 85% of REO condo sales have been in the neighborhoods stretching south from SOMA along the east side of the city down to Bayview and across to Oceanview. The greater part of the city – northern, central and western neighborhoods – continues to be relatively unaffected by foreclosure sales.

Appreciation & Depreciation of San Francisco Homes Since 1995

Below, median sales prices are calculated for 2-bedroom condos, 3-bedroom houses and 2-bedroom TICs in a number of SF neighborhoods over a variety of periods beginning with 1995 — when the last, great Sellers’ market began — and ending with the six months following the financial market meltdown in September 2008. (Its effect began to show up in mid-October sales.) Median price is a relatively crude statistical generality – especially in SF with its huge variety in property type, size, condition, curb appeal and architectural style – but it can be useful in assessing macro trends in the market. However, remember: for a specific home, only a specific market analysis is truly pertinent.

Since October 15th, year over year, the number of sales has dropped 20% for houses, 35% for condos, 53% for TICs and 46% for 2-4 unit buildings. But that masks significant changes in buying trends: the number of houses sold below $1,000,000 actually increased 4%, while sales of more expensive houses plunged over 50%. People are generally buying smaller, less expensive homes, and then, only those that stand out as excellent values. Less appealing homes – which still sold in earlier years (virtually everything sold during the boom years) – are not getting reflected in the current figures.

Some of the more affluent neighborhoods had too few sales to be statistically meaningful. For example, in the last 6 months, all of Pacific & Presidio Heights, Cow Hollow and the Marina had only 19 house sales, of all sizes and prices. St. Francis Wood had only 6 and Sea Cliff only 4. Roughly 50 – 70% of buyers of upper-end homes – who would typically be considered “willing and able” – can no longer get better financing rates without very large down payments. When that changes, we’ll be better able to assess values in that market segment. In the meantime, it is dominated by buyers with lots of cash.

Depending on your email system, you may have to give permission to download the following charts.

Further analyses of percentage changes in median and average prices, and dollars per square foot can be found here:
Percentage Declines Analysis

Rent v. Buy: What's Better for You Right Now?

As is clear from the above, the long term value of buying versus renting is easy to show. But what about the short term? Well, due to price declines, tax benefits and exceedingly low interest rates, the Rent versus Buy equation – which went badly out of whack during the runaway Sellers’ market – has been coming much more into balance. Here is a sample calculation comparing paying $2600 rent with purchasing a $650,000 home. Since any calculation depends on one’s assumptions regarding inflation, appreciation, interest rates, down payment, term of ownership, and so forth, please feel free to use the calculator referenced to perform your own calculation.
Sample Rent vs. Buy Calculation

Yay! Free Money! Federal and California Tax Credits for Home Purchases

The good news is that there are both Federal and California Tax Credits available for certain qualifying buyers of homes that meet the requirements.  Note that the Federal and California tax credits are very different from each other, and the methods for claiming the credit are likewise very different.

This summary is provided for general information only and does not apply to any individual situation.  All buyers who are interested in qualifying for either or both of these credits are advised to consult with their own tax advisors.

1.  FEDERAL TAX CREDIT (FIRST-TIME BUYERS ONLY)

Amount:  $8,000 if home purchased in 2009, but no more than 10% of the purchase price of the home (half that amount if married filing separately).  $7,500 if purchased before 2009.

Expires:  December 1, 2009

Only First-Time Homebuyers Can Claim the Credit:  In general, buyers can claim the credit if they are a first-time homebuyer. Buyers are considered a first-time homebuyer if:

• They purchased their main home after April 8, 2008, and before December 1, 2009.
• The buyer (and spouse, if married) did not own any other main home during the 3-year period ending on the date of purchase.

Main home. A main home is the one the buyer lives in most of the time. Not limited to new construction.  It can be a house, houseboat, house-trailer, cooperative apartment, condominium, or other type of residence.

The Credit Cannot Be Claimed If:

• The buyer’s modified adjusted gross income is $95,000 or more ($170,000 or more if married filing jointly).
• The buyer is a nonresident alien.
• The home is located outside the United States.
• The buyer acquired their home by gift or inheritance.
• The buyer acquired their home from a related person.

No Repayment of Credit:  There is no repayment of this credit if the home is purchased in 2009.  However, the buyer must repay the credit if the home ceases to be their main home within the 36-month period beginning on the purchase date.  (Note:  For homes purchased before 2009, the tax credit is subject to repayment rules.)

2.  CALIFORNIA TAX CREDIT (NEW CONSTRUCTION PURCHASES ONLY)

Amount:  Up to $10,000.  California allows qualified new home buyers a total tax credit amount equal to either five percent of the purchase price or $10,000, whichever is less.

Note:  Taxpayers must apply the total tax credit in equal amounts over three successive taxable years (maximum of $3,333 per year) beginning with the taxable year (2009 or 2010) in which the new home is purchased.  Special rules apply to married/RDP (Registered Domestic Partners) taxpayers filing separately.

Expires:    March 1, 2010.

All Qualified Buyers Can Claim This Credit, Not Just First-Time Home Buyers:  This tax credit is available for qualified buyerswho on or after March 1, 2009, and before March 1, 2010, purchase a qualified principal residence. The buyer must reside in the new home for a minimum of two years immediately following the purchase date.

Qualified Buyer:  A taxpayer who purchases a Qualified Principal Residence that is purchased to be the principal residence of the taxpayer for a minimum of two years, and that is eligible for the homeowner’s exemption (under California Revenue and Taxation Code Section 218).

Qualified Principal Residence – New Construction:  Any of the following can qualify if it is new construction (that is, it has never been occupied), is the buyer’s principal residence, and is subject to property tax, whether real or personal property:  a single family residence, a condominium, a unit in a cooperative project, a houseboat, a manufactured home, or a mobile home.

First-Come, First-Served (or You Snooze, You Lose):  California has allocated $100,000,000 for this tax credit. Buyers must apply for credit allocation from the Franchise Tax Board (“FTB”). Applications will be reviewed and credit allocations will be made on a first-come, first-served basis. Once $100,000,000 has been allocated, the tax credit will no longer be available.

How to apply:   Within one week (seven calendar days) after the close of escrow:

·         The seller must complete Part I of Form 3528-A, Application for New Home Credit, certifying that the home has never been occupied, and provide a copy to the buyer or escrow person.

·         The buyer will complete Parts II & III of Form 3528-A.

·         The escrow person on behalf of the seller and buyer will fax the completed Form 3528-A to FTB at 916.845.9754, and provide a copy to the buyer.

Fax is the only delivery method that will be accepted by, and considered for credit allocation by, FTB, as the date and time stamp on the fax will determine the order in which credits are allocated.

“Time is of the essence” on this one!  

1.  Remember, when the allocated amount of funds ($100,000,000) has been approved for credit by the FTB, there are no more tax credits available.

2.  Also, Buyers only have one week after close of escrow to apply for the credit.

For more information on the California tax credit (and a running total of the amount of credit left to be allocated) go to:  http://www.ftb.ca.gov/individuals/New_Home_Credit.shtml#def2 or call the Franchise Tax Board at:  888.792.4900 (press 5)

San Francisco State of The Market

Advanced Listing Services was kind enough to provide me with this “State of the Market” report for San Francisco County. It analyzes new listings, the rate at which they are marked “pending,” and the number of properties that return to “active” after being “pending.”

The most intersting piece of information in the report to me, is that the listing price for pending properties is significantly lower than that of for sale or active properties. This suggests that only inventory at the lower end of the price range is really moving despite the fact that foreclosures continue to be a relatively low proportion of our inventory in San Francisco.

To see the report, click here.

Walkscore to CrimeMaps – a Useful List

Here are some useful, interesting and/or fun websites for San Francisco and the Bay Area. I hope you enjoy them!  I especially love Walkscore, which is the first one!

• Everything Within Walking Distance of Your Home
• Chronicle List of Top 100 Bay Area Restaurants
• Chronicle Map of Top 100 Bay Area Restaurants
• Chronicle Top 20 Wines Under $40
• San Francisco Biking Resources
• Bay Area Hiking Trails
• San Francisco Parks & Recreation
• The Museums of San Francisco
• Civic Information & News by Neighborhood
• Guide to 25 Distinctive SF Neighborhoods
• Remodeling Cost vs. Value Analysis for SF
• Bay Area Public Transport
• Bay Area Trip Planner & Traffic Conditions
• San Francisco Recycling Resources
• Chronicle Foreclosure Database by Zip Code
• Disaster Preparedness Information & Resources
• San Francisco Crime Maps

2008 Homes of the Week – What Happened?