January 28, 2012
These charts show activity by week for the six months ending January 23, 2012 for San Francisco houses, condos, co-ops and TICs.
Units for Sale: Starting to creep up in January, but still an incredibly low level of inventory. As a point of reference, even before the plunge at the end of the year (which is more or less typical during the holidays), inventory was running 25% – 35% below the levels of 2010. So it’s been very low, and it has gotten even lower.
New Listings: New listings typically tail off in late October in preparation for the holidays and then start to climb again in the new year. New listings are indeed starting to come on market in increasing numbers, but they are still far below that needed to meet current buyer demand.
Listings Accepting Offers: The number of active listings going under contract (accepting offers) is climbing as the market wakes up. Considering the low level of inventory, the number of listings accepting offers in the week ending 1/23/12 is very high.
Percentage of Listings Accepting Offers: The 3 earlier charts are summed up below. Very low inventory + very strong demand = a very high percentage of listings accepting offers. In fact, the highest percentage we remember ever seeing. Again as a point of reference, this percentage was much higher in 2011 than in previous years – and now it is going even higher still (though there will be some adjustment down for deals that end up falling through).
Months Supply of Inventory (MSI): This chart won’t be updated for January for another week or two, but it still paints a sharp picture of supply vs. demand as currently exists in the SF homes market. 2 months is very, very low, but in some neighborhoods, we are seeing MSI numbers of 1 month and below – almost unbelievably low.
Posted by Market News, Conditions, & Statistics
December 29, 2011
The new Case-Shiller Index report for October was just released. Many news articles are trumpeting that prices declined in “19 out of 20 US Metro Areas,” however while the aggregate Index for the 5-County San Francisco Metro Statistical Area did indeed decline very slightly in October (by about half of one percent), the Case-Shiller High Tier Price Index for the SF Metro Area, which is the Index which best applies to the city of San Francisco itself actually ticked up a little in October.
The Case-Shiller High Tier Index applies to house sales of about $600,000 and above. In the 8 northern and central districts of the city, the median house sales price for non-distress houses is well over $800,000. Indeed, if there was an “Upper High Tier Index” for SF alone, I suspect we would see an even larger uptick in prices. It’s been very consistent in the city, Bay Area, state and country that lower price homes have been affected much more negatively than higher price homes.
As always, our full article on Case-Shiller is here: http://www.paragon-re.com/postings/Case_Shiller_San_Francisco_MSA.html
For the record, tiny monthly fluctuations must be considered within any reasonable margin of error and are essentially meaningless. What is important is the consistent, longer-term trend.
Posted by Market News, Conditions, & Statistics
December 10, 2011
These are weekly market activity charts for the past 6 months through the week ending December 4, 2011, for houses, condos, co-ops, TICs and 2-4 unit buildings.
Listings Accepting Offers: Accepted offer activity is staying surprisingly strong, picking up after the short, slow Thanksgiving week. Buyers are clearly still engaged in the market.
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Listings for Sale: inventory, which has been low all year, is now very, very low.
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Percentage of Listings Accepting Offers: Strong buyer demand + very low inventory = very high percentage of listings accepting offers, the highest in a long time.
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New Listings Coming on Market: As is typical for December, the number of new listings coming on market is very low, but considering the demand, sellers and agents might want to rethink the usual dynamic of waiting for the new year.
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Closed Sales: The week ending 12/4 had the highest number of closings since early summer. Closed sales now reflect accepted-offer activity in October and early November.
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Expired & Withdrawn Listings: As is common for December, the number of listings expiring or being withdrawn from the market is rapidly climbing. Many of these will be re-listed in mid-January, often at a lower price.
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Posted by Market News, Conditions, & Statistics
