The Swiss bank UBS published its Global Real Estate Bubble Index recently, stating that San Francisco is the most overvalued real estate market in the US. Their analysis focused on the rise of home prices in San Francisco compared to the rise in median incomes. Their report stated that home prices have risen 65% since 2012 while the average income has risen only 10%.
While they are, essentially, correct about the rise in the housing prices (taking both single family and condo prices into account), they are off on the income rise. Per the US Department of Commerce, median household income rose 42% from 2012-2016. While there is no income data out yet for 2017, we can safely assume that it has risen in 2017, given the incredibly tight job market. Therefor, income appreciation has lagged at least 40% behind housing cost appreciation, resulting in a significant drop in housing affordability.
Single Family Homes:
October’s median sales price jumped sharply to an all-time high of $1,588,000, up 13.4% above October, 2016.
The number of new listings on the market year-to-date is down 5% from 2016 while the number of sales is up 2.9%. This has caused inventory to drop 29% compared to last October and is at its lowest level, 1.9 months, since February.
The incredibly tight supply coupled with strong demand kept the level of overbids high as well, up to 115.6%, higher than last October’s 108%.
83% of single family homes sold above the list price, and the median sales price was 113% of the list price.
Median sold prices are dead even with last October’s at $1,140,000. They are up 5.8% on a 3-month rolling average compared to last year.
Following a very big month in the number of condo/TIC sales, 303, inventory is down 16% from September and 26% compared to last October. Like single family homes, the number of Condo/Loft/TIC listings are down year-to-date compared to 2016, by 6.6%, while sales are up 2.7%.
The flurry of sales brought sold prices up above list prices, to 104%, the highest level since May, 2016. This compares to this September’s 101%. And, 67% sold above list price, up from 55% in September.
Sold for $3,051,000
Property Type: Condo
Sold for $1,210,000
Property Type: Single Family
Most of us know someone who has experienced a loss in these horrible fires. Please distribute this post to those you know and on your social media. I hope the information contained here will help communities to rebuild in the long term and provide comfort in the short term.
If you have experienced a loss in the recent and ongoing fires, please click here for the Roadmap to Recovery Guide from UP. It is short and sweet and will help you do better when you are dealing with your insurance company. This guide provides essential tips I am on the board of UP, an organization that helps disaster victims rebuild their lives by helping people get the money they are entitled to from their insurance company. This guide provides essential tips and strategies to those who have experienced a loss. Insurance companies are NOT on your side as a consumer and you have to know the right things to say and do to get the coverage you have paid for – especially when there are massive unforeseen losses.
I am on the board of United Policyholders (UP), a consumer advocacy non-profit founded 25 years ago in response to the Oakland Hills Firestorm. Our organization that helps disaster victims rebuild their lives by helping people get the money they are entitled to from their insurance company. For more about UP, read on.
UP is a struggling, underfunded and very valuable organization. Click here if you can donate to help with our important work. Just providing enough money for our volunteers to get to shelters to speak to those in need of help can change lives. Please help.
Sold for $467,000
Property Type: Single Family