Happy Thanksgiving and San Francisco Market Update for November 2020

November 30, 2020
Quick notes about what I mention in the video:  
 
For single family homes, 1541 sales since 3/17/20 versus
1638 for the same period last year belies the concept so touted in the media that “everyone is leaving” San Francisco.

There is no preponderance of inventory with 399 single family homes currently on the market, which would exist if indeed “everyone” were leaving.  If you subtract the 99 of these that are over 3MM and adjust the sales down for the 226 homes that sold over 3MM, the market under 3MM is really healthy with just about 2months of inventory.

 
The market over 3MM, however, is a bit softer with about 30 says per month and 99 on the market, it would take about 3.3 months for these to be absorbed.
 
The question is, is this really different from last year.  It isn’t too different, at least for single family homes.  6% fewer homes sold overall and the top end always moves a little slower moving on average.
 
But condos are still telling a different story.  There were 16% fewer sales and there is a huge amount of sitting inventory, with 1799 sales over 8 months and 1274 condos on the market.  This is trending down, actually, from what it was a few months ago. Some of that is absorption, but some is inventory being withdrawn, which will continue through the end of the year as people hope for a fresh start in 2021.
 
I think that what we can say is that for every person who sold a single family and left the city, there was a condo owner or a renter ready to step into their shoes.  This has left some condos sitting as wall flowers – particularly those without their own front door/with an elevator.  This is where I would seek to invest at the moment if I were looking for a good deal.  As soon as we really have vaccines, the trend away from this type of property will reverse and the prices will quickly rebound as people, actually sick of the country, come back to enjoy the delights great cities always have had to offer.
 
But 2138 last year for condos versus
1799 this year definitely means not as many people are buying condos?  Certainly for condos, we have 1274 active condos on the market, but only 399 single family homes, 99 or 25% of which are over 3MM.  
226 of the sales since March are over 3MM, which is actually less than the number that sold last year, which was 243.  What’s interesting here is that homes over 3MM represent 14.6% of the sales but 25% of the sitting inventory.  The % of sales over 3MM is almost exactly the same at 14.8
 
47 condos sold over 3MM since march
78 condos on the market over 3MM. Much slower than over 3MM single family home market.  That’s 13.4 months of inventory!
 
San Francisco is only 49 square miles and has one of the most diverse real estate market’s anywhere.  Is it any wonder we defy sweeping categorical observation?  Here’s an example of the rage we are working with all sold in 2020!
 

135 homes under 1MM from a 532k 1 bedroom fixer to 8 sales over 10MM with one at 24MM in Sea Cliff