Market Update: July 2010, Mid-Year Review

Median prices and average dollar per square foot figures are generalities, which may be affected by other market factors besides changes in value. All information contained herein is derived from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and omissions, and is not warranted. Sales not reported to MLS are not included in these analyses.
Median Sales Prices
The Median Sales Price is that price at which half the properties sold for more and half for less. Many agents believe that SF homes values started to climb in the last quarter, and, as shown in the chart, houses and condos did hit their highest median prices since 2008. However, they’re only about 1% above late 2009, and still within 3-4% of prices 15 months ago. The new quarter will show whether an established upward trend in prices has begun, instead of the recent zigzaging up and down. Remember that sales prices are 30-60 days behind the market: closed sales in June generally reflect offers accepted in April and May.
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Homes Accepting Offers
Despite all the news reports about declining home sales, in San Francisco at least, though we have seen a drop from the unusual spike in April (expiring Federal tax credits), activity in June was still the 4th strongest month in the last 2 years, 7% above June 2009, and almost equal to June 2008 (before the market downturn in September 2008). Last year, sales did not significantly slow in the summer.
Paragon Real Estate Group

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Median HOUSE Price by Neighborhood
Besides the values pertinent to different neighborhoods, house sizes often vary enormously: average house size in Pacific Heights and St. Francis Wood is much larger than in Noe Valley, which is larger than that of Miraloma Park. Pacific & Presidio Heights are almost always at the top of the chart and Bayview (terribly affected by foreclosure sales) at the bottom.
Paragon Real Estate Group

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Median CONDO Price by Neighborhood
Russian Hill has been consistently at the top of median condo prices. Of course, condos in different neighborhoods may have widely divergent sizes, quality of finish and age of construction. One reason for the gap between the Marina and Pacific Heights is that the former has a much larger average condo size.
Paragon Real Estate Group

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Average HOUSE Dollar per Square Foot
Dollar per Square Foot is based upon the home’s interior living space and does not include garages, unfinished attics and basements, rooms built without permit, decks or yards. These figures are usually derived from appraisals or tax records, but can be unreliable or unreported altogether. Note that in Pacific Heights/Marina (Realtor District 7), less than half the houses sold specified square footage, which makes the figure below a wild approximation.
Paragon Real Estate Group

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District 5: Average House $/Sq.Ft.
District 5 is one of San Francisco’s largest and most homogenous districts and includes the following neighborhoods: Noe & Eureka Valleys; Ashbury, Clarendon & Corona Heights; Haight Ashbury; Duboce Triangle; Glen Park; Mission Dolores. The average dollar per square foot for houses in District 5 has been creeping up over the past 4 quarters, but it is still 14% below the height of the market in the first half of 2008. Note that average dollar per square foot may be affected by other issues than simply changes in value, such as the size of the homes being purchased.
Paragon Real Estate Group

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Average CONDO Dollar per Square Foot
Only half the condo sales in Russian Hill specified square footage, so its figure, in particular, is a wild approximation. Still, Russian Hill is almost always at the top of the scale. The Nob Hill average, in particular can fluctuate enormously depending on where within Nob Hill the sales are taking place, but all averages are gross generalities that may fluctuate for a number of reasons (besides changes in value).
Paragon Real Estate Group

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SF Luxury Home Sales by Neighborhood
We generally define the luxury home market in the city as house sales of $2,000,000 plus, and condo/co-op sales of $1,500,000 plus. The northern prestige neighborhoods — such as Sea Cliff, Pacific & Presidio Heights, and Russian & Nob Hills — dominate luxury home sales, but some also occur in District 5 (Noe, Castro and Haight Ashbury) and in St. Francis Wood, as well as in the new condo developments in South Beach and SOMA.
Paragon Real Estate Group

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Homes $1,000,000+ Accepting Offers
Sales of homes of $1,000,000 plus strengthened this past spring. Such higher-end sales typically make up 15% – 20% of the overall home market in San Francisco by unit sales.
Paragon Real Estate Group

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Home Sales by Realtor District
The district with the greatest number of house sales is District 10, which has been hit hardest by foreclosure sales. The district dominating condo sales is District 9 with all the recent condo developments (and this chart does not include new development sales not reported to MLS, of which there are many in District 9). District 5 in the center of the city has the second highest number of overall sales after District 9.
Paragon Real Estate Group

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Homes For Sale
The inventory of homes for sale is creeping upward, which is good news for buyers.
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New Home Listings Coming on Market
The number of new listings in the city are up 19% over June of last year, but down from the peaks of the spring selling season.
Paragon Real Estate Group

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SF Bank & Short Sales
The percentage of distressed home sales has stayed mostly in the 12% – 16% range since late 2008. Bank sales are typically pursuant to foreclosure. Short sales are those sales in which the lender’s agreement to reduce the outstanding mortgage balance is necessary for the sale complete – that is, the house is worth less than the loan and other financial liens on the property.
Paragon Real Estate Group

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Listings Sold to Listings Expired/Withdrawn
The green bars denote sold homes and the purple bars denote expired and withdrawn listings. Even in a relatively hot spring home-selling season, a large percentage of listings do not sell, generally due to being perceived as overpriced.
Paragon Real Estate Group

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Months-Supply-of-Inventory (MSI)
MSI is defined as the number of months it would take to sell the current inventory of homes for sale, at the current rate of sale: the lower the MSI, the greater the demand. MSI has stayed relatively stable at 3-4 months of inventory since February, which is considered relatively low.
Paragon Real Estate Group

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Average Days-on-Market (DOM)
Days-on-Market measures the number of days between a property going on market and the acceptance of an offer. The average number of days on market for those houses and condos accepting offers continues to decline and is now at its lowest level in over two years.
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Contact us anytime for assistance, information and resources regarding San Francisco real estate.
Paragon Real Estate Group
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